Crowdfunding–be careful!

There are a couple of crowdfunding projects that are now shipping that I am excited about. One of them is the Drawflab camera. This, combined with the already shipping Benro camera mount, makes for a very powerful combination. The value of crowdfunding is the opportunity to be ahead of the mass market. To adopt and use technologies before most people do. So I am looking forward to the box with the Dwarflab Camera. It is supposed to arrive in the next 2-3 weeks! It is like a late Christmas present! Although I have been waiting more than a year!

For the 100^th time, I will point out that crowdfunding is risky. You are not guaranteed the campaign will deliver what they are trying to build. I run about an 80% success rate on Kickstarter and have stopped backing projects on Indigogo because the success rate on IndieGoGo is closer to 50%. I understand failure when someone does something new, but 1 out of 2 is a little too high. Unless you are playing baseball and are a hitter, that is the only case I know of where 1 out of 2 is a really good thing (no MLB player has ever batter .600 for a season, of course, you have to have the minimum number of hits to quality).

The other thing to consider is that some of these projects still need to be delivered within the timeline projected. So Drawflab is late on their solution. By nearly a year, there are many other connected telescopes and cameras like Drawflab already on the market. Effectively someones by the time you get the tech, it is no longer state of the art. It is a risk that, at times, is worth it. But it is a secondary risk for CrowdFunding that you have to consider. As it may miss the mass market of other solutions, make sure it does what you want when you pledge to the campaign. Plus, take a hard look at IndieGoGo campaigns; they are much riskier.

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Yea its expert culture day

The reality of communication always bothers me. Communication is easy to deal with the topic. It is pretty straightforward. You get information; you share information. It isn’t rocket science unless you are a rocket scientist sharing details of how a rocket works. It is pretty straightforward. But organizations create massive processes around information creation, management, and delivery. Here is the fatal flaw in those systems, it doesn’t break the organizational silos. What, you might ask, is an organizational data or information silo? Well, simply put, it is the overall barrier to communication.

What I know. What makes me smart?

Or sometimes, and sadly, what I know is how that is implemented and how I keep my job.

In the past, I have derided the concept of an expert culture. I am not a fan of expert cultures. They are very dangerous when it comes to information sharing. Expert cultures are great at creating information. They are great at validating information (to a degree, experts don’t like when their ideas are questioned) but sharing information undercuts the expert culture. The graphic shows the problem. You need to know. Sometimes, you go to the expert and ask for that information. The reality is the expert or the expert network will bounce around your question and bring you back an answer. But the information, the very thing you need, remains with the experts. My father used to say, do you know what an expert is? “Ex” is someone with a past. “Spert” is a drip under pressure. In other words, be careful.

The sad reality of expert culture is that they are hard to break.

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Chasing automation

Three things I think about often are how to utilize automation better. Not from tearing into the process and redoing it so it is more automatic, but rather the overall impact of automation and the impact of not using automation. In particular, I prefer to wander the path of considering the human. Yes, borrowing from Reddit, but considering the human is critical. While I understand the fear many have about Robotics and Machine Intelligence replacing humans, it is important to consider two critical questions before we conclude on the good or bad reality of automation.

1. Does the job/role/function cause the human to decay over time (or the medical term repetitive stress injuries)? If a human does the job for three or five years, will they have injuries from doing that job that they wouldn’t have otherwise?
2. Does the job as it exists present safety risks for the humans doing it?

Two easy questions have to be asked before we condemn automation. Historically at times, humans don’t learn from history. China, as a nation, built a wall 2000 years ago (or so). The Great wall of china was designed to reduce invasions from the North. It didn’t work. So, in 2016 the US repeated that mistake by desiring to build a wall to keep people from the South out. We could do things differently and not repeat the mistakes of history. Automation is a toolset we can use now that benefits humans. It is historically, however, not something new. There have been inventions that reduced human requirements many times in the past.

• Thcottonin Gin
• The plow
• The harness (to allow oxen to pull plows)!
• The Airplane
• The automobile

So the next time automation is presented to you, could you consider the first two questions? Think about how much faster and more effective farmers were after the horse, donkey, or oxen pulled the plow was invented. Think about how small the world is when you can hop on a plane and be virtually anywhere in 20 hours. Or pick up your cell phone and call anywhere on the planet in seconds!

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The 3d printer market

Yesterday I reviewed the AnkerMake M5; it is a really good 3d printer that can do most of the things I need to do with a 3d printer. More complex prints will be done on the Snapmaker Artisan, but that has not chipped yet, so for now, it is either the plasma 3d printer or the Ankermake M5.

Several Analyses put 3d printers in 40 to 50% of all American homes by 2030. That is a lot of aggressive. Personally, and I’ve had 3d printing as a growth area for many years, I think the growth rate will climb above where it is now in the next 6-7 years. But I don’t see it hitting the 8% growth rate year over year that being at 50% by 2030 would require. I think the year-over-year growth rate will be 2%. That puts 3d printers in roughly 30% of American homes by 2030. I say roughly because I think 30% is still a little high, and the real number will be closer to 20%.

All of that is based on the printers in the market today. If someone can bring a new capability to market at a price point consumers would consider, then things will change. So, I thought I would share what might move the 3d printing market (in my humble opinion)

1. Printers that start below 1000 dollars
2. sinters that print plastic (PLA and ABS)
3. terms that can also switch and print metal (would require a changeable print head)
4. grade integrated (like Ankermake did) between mobile devices and PCs.

Just those four (together) would change my market prediction. But of course, the important there is when. If someone builds a 3d printer capable of hitting all four of those abilities in, say, 2028, then it will be lonely to move the market to 24% or 25%. If that printer hits the market in 2024, you will see a 30% market penetration. So now it is waiting for new capabilities and when those will be released.

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My review Ankermake M5 3d printer

Most people, well, if you buy what some analysts are saying today, it is most people now, but it won’t be most people in the future. Most people do not have a 3d printer at home. They have held off buying one, and I understand that. This is a review of the new Ankermake M5 ed printer. I will say that this is a review many may not consider today, but it could be something you will consider in the future. I will do this review the way I’ve always done them. The first rule is talking about setup and configuration, then things I love and don’t love, and going from there to a final rating.

Setup: It took the unit out of the box and screwed in 12 screws using the Torx wrench. Twelve screws took me about 12 minutes Then you set up the software. I did the PC and the iPhone version of the software; There is also a Mac version and an Android version. The setup from boxing to printing was one day, but that was because I had other things to do! I was ready to print in roughly 20 minutes. I also had to load my initial PLA for printing. The Ankermake PC software is very nice. The Slicer does a good job, and my favorite thing about the newer 3d printers is I don’t have to sneakernet the file. I can print via my home network.

The mobile application is also nice. It would be best if you had it to set up the final step (registering your printer with the Ankermake system).

Things I love

• Real-time camera, take a video as you print
• Post print Time-Lapse videos
• AI that catches errors but doesn’t stop the printing
• AnkerMake Sofware on the PC is good and easy to use
• The system heats the bed and plastic Nozzle very fast
• Printing is overall 3 to 4 times faster than my previous printer was
• Ankermake mobile software works very well. You can even get alerts on your printing when you are not home!

What I don’t like

• You can only have one PC logged into your Ankermake account simultaneously.

The overall setup was a breeze. The printer is stable and doesn’t move or make much noise. Prints are very fast. The overall software is good on both the PC and the Mobile Device. The Mobile application allows you to receive notifications when you are not home (that is cool). The camera works well! Overall this is a great first 3d printer to consider for your home!

I give Ankermake M5 a 10 out of 10!

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Always learning

The concept of learning is important. Currently I am learning about China. In particular, the history of China. When I was in school in Thailand many years ago, we were introduced to China as the “Merchant Country” or the sellers. In Thailand, there was a feeling that the Chinese were focused on business. It wasn’t meant in a way to be derogatory. The focus on every nation is different, which got me started on the Chinese information journey many years ago. Recently I’ve had a friend introduce me to some of the more amazing historical things that I didn’t have a chance to visit on my last visit to China.

How do we evaluate success if we consider lifelong learning a goal? One way is to stretch, reach outside what is comfortable and find out about that. For me, that is anything outside of technology. Except for two areas, my first major in college was History, and my final degree was Elementary Education. Those are two areas I keep up with personally. I do reinforce what I learned in those two topics often. You would be amazed at the value that understanding educational principles can bring to you. If you see people struggling with information, you know how to change the present presentation information quickly.

(for example in valdiating information, the image comes from my Bird Buddy. It is an odd wingless bird.)

My father loved chasing history. Chasing history, I remember him slowing down and having us read historical markers along the way we traveled. History lies around us no matter where we are. Finding the history and understanding and validating the information you has is critical. I have read the wonderful book “Lies your teacher told you.” It is a book that focuses on the information we were taught about the history of the US. As I said, learning is all about gathering information and validating the information you have gathered. Sometimes it is ok to say I do not know.

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what do you turn on first?

I read a great blog yesterday about the first and last thing you turn off daily. For me, the first thing on was the computer. But that is because the coffee pot is always on, and my cellular phone is always on. But the computer is something I routinely shut down every single day. I suspect the relevance of personal computers will move forward if they can support the always-on functionality of cell phones and coffee pots!

So what do you turn on when you are first starting work? How much of your available job is done on a laptop (I suspect mine is still more than 60%)? What percentage of your job has moved from landline and laptop to cellular phone (figure the other 40% for me here)? That evolution is something I track – because I see the end of the laptop as it exists today. It is roughly between three and five years out. Today’s capabilities in your cell phone are more than were available to the Astronauts on the Apollo 11 craft that landed humans on the moon. The power in your pocket!

I realize most people don’t do some of the things I do. I am more of an advanced tech person, but it is interesting how much of a shift has begun. I started my cellular phone world back in the old CDMA phone days. I had a bag phone (which could be in the car, or house and office easily) that I switched to a handheld with a car kit. The handheld was a flip phone and was massive! It also only made calls. Like it couldn’t do anything else, texting would have been hard. It had a very tiny screen. Back then, we used to have a pager for messaging. But that initial phone soon changed in both capabilities but also in impact. I traveled to southeast Asia frequently in the 2000s. From 2000 to 2010, the nations of Asia adopted cell phones very quickly. I would say that the market was driven initially by Asian country adoption, with the west pulling in second. But now, the world is driving cellular connectivity.

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The journey begins!

I have a Canon plotter in my office. I realized yesterday while I was cleaning (and looking for something I cannot find). I love having a plotter and used it quite often in the past. But lately, I don’t make big architectural drawings as often as I did. I wonder if it is time to, in Elsa’s words, Let it Go!

Over the next few months, it is a conversation I will have many times. There are things you need, things you want, and things you have. Balancing that is important. There was a time when having a plotter (I started with HPs until I moved away from HP to Canon) was important. I frequently created large-scale architecture diagrams used at customer locations to explain things. Now, with so many additional technologies and the move to more remote presentations, I don’t need to print any more large format materials. I will fire it up and print something before I make that decision!

It’s like the hutch in the corner of my office. Over the three moves it has undergone, it has been managed a bit. In particular, the hutch portion is less stable than it used to be. The main desk portion is still good; as I consider this upcoming move, I wonder if now is the time to pitch the top. I just wanted to let you know that we will see.

Anyway, I must go back to searching for the item I misplaced. In part because I need to charge it and use it. I use it to project in my office (a projector) as it is portable, rechargeable, and works very well with the PC output. I use it once a month or so, but December was a month I didn’t do any reviews, so I didn’t need to use it. I will have to spend a break or lunch today looking for it!

Today, being the first day back to work, vacation is nice, but I was honestly bored yesterday!

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3d printing and more

Today I am printing pencil holders, mostly to organize the many pencils and pens on or near my desk. I also have a few USB keys and other small things that go better if they are stored in an easy-to-grab place. So, I am printing a couple of pencil holders. I will not take my corner desk when we move later this year. Well, I am taking the base. It is in great condition, but the hutch is not moving. It is a little frayed. I would like to end up with a house that has a basement so I can convert the basement into an office. Bedrooms tend to be smaller, and I have more stuff that will fit in a bedroom!

The goal is to focus in the short term on printing things that I need to clear my desk. Over time I will print the initial assembly for the Rover I am building. That right now is still in the design phase. I need to build one that connects with the rover body easily. It needs to be able to snap on and off easily. So it needs to be snug but not tight. I also need it to be able to support the 360-degree camera. I am still debating the need for a projector. With Astro, I can watch anything on Amazon Prime video, and I am sure Netflix, Hulu, and others will have skills available soon. It is a nice-sized screen on Astro, so I can watch it anywhere.

I use small projects with my iPhone, allowing me to view anywhere. But the Rover will be designed to go into places I don’t want to go (a crawlspace is one example).

The mount on the top will be made with PLA or ABS plastic, so there are limits on the total weight carried. Additionally, the external power of the Rover I am currently considering would limit the camera’s capabilities unless I got one that would recharge separately from the Rover (which is also possible).

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Time to backup your computers!

I am catching up on my backlog of things I’ve wanted to 3d print for a while.

I enjoy the time-lapse videos that AnkerMake produces. As is my tradition, I fully back up my files to my offline drive. It is something I do around the first of every month. During the month, I back up files to my online drive. I also have an offline physical drive and back up to that once a month. Sometimes in months, when I am productive, I will back up much more than once a month. I have a physical hard drive in the house that I leave unplugged. That is my primary offline backup. By offline, I mean it is turned off and not connected to a computer most of the time.

The other thing I usually do is scan my computer checking for viruses and malware. That was completed early this morning.

It is the regular backup and computer hygiene task I do every month. When you push stuff out to the internet and download stuff from it, you check and verify what you are downloading and consuming. The only service I wouldn’t worry about now is the paid streaming services, but I suspect someone will eventually create a virus to infect those services. Where there is money to be made, people will flock to that. It is why there are not many BTC, Forex, and Crypto traders wandering the internet. They all see potential revenue, they don’t all realize it, but they see it.

A wise man once said moths flock to the lightbulb. It is what they do. Butterflies do not; it is what they do. Be a butterfly!

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