More IoT numbers, and who is going to change 125 Billion Batteries?

Yesterday I published the math for part of my belief that in fact there are more IoT devices deployed now, as well as more coming than the analysts project. One of the things of the Internet that I didn’t add was the broader concept of power users. IoT power users are different, first off in that they participate in a much broader pantheon of what IoT is. Within IoT, there are the concepts of connection, automation and transaction. There are the concepts of smart home, smart car, and smart power generation.

A power user (not a home that uses power) would touch many more IoT spaces than a novice or beginning user would. In fact, if you consider Transactive Energy (IE I have a solar implementation on my roof and I am producing energy) there is the concept of IoT devices engaged in this process. The first is the new digital power meter supplied by your power company. The second is the three IoT sensors provided by your solar panels (system health, system power production and system status). So just that one system has roughly three sensors per panel, with the average solar implementation have at least 5 panels. That would be 15 devices on the panels (minimum) plus two more. One in your home connected to your home network for remote data consumption and one for the power company that produces 17 total devices minimum. 8% of American homes today have Solar installed and frankly that number is going up not down. There are 125 million homes in the US give or take 1 million (per last US census that number is increasing year over year not decreasing). That puts 8.5 million homes in the US with Solar panels deployed or roughly 144 million more IoT devices just for homes with Solar Panels. With projected market growth of 10-15% per year that number gets to 500 million by 2020. Just solar panels and IoT devices. Homes using wind power and off-line power generators adds another 10-20 million total devices in just 4 years.

The reality is the number of devices is growing. My estimates put the average number of high end users or the 10% in a standard bell curve of adoption at 15 devices per person in a home. That number is pretty solid in terms of the math. Even if we go back and declare that one connected device is one sensor we are still going to beat that 15 per user number.

clip_image001The number ends up being a lot closer to 125 billion devices by 2020. This is accounting (assumptions) for the following growth rates:

· Home IoT devices at a growth rate of 50% per year.

· Industrial IoT devices at a growth rate of 25% per year.

· Government IoT device growth rate of 10% per year.

These rates are probably right on for home, low for government and industrial. The number of IoT devices available is directly proportional to the number of overall items sold. Today, a number, growing, of devices sold are connected devices. Each of those housing a set of sensors that if we count all sensors in a device it would be an even large number. But for now we count only the actual connected device.

The math is staggering.

The analysts took the easy road/the safe road. Luckily I don’t have to. I am projecting IoT expansion to roughly twice what the analysts project today. Nearly 2.25 times what analysts are projecting. The reason is that I believe the market has shifted. The number of devices sold that are not connected today has dropped. A critical got to have feature is connecting to my Android or Apple phone or tablet. From Solar Panels on your roof, a whole home generator or your new refrigerator. Everything is connected. Your TV is connected. Your cable and satellite systems are connected. Your home can talk to you via the many devices you can deploy.

Now imagine it’s your job to change the batteries in 125 billion devices. J

Authors note: the early adopters of automation and IoT devices may exceed 30 devices per person. Assuming a family of 4 average and 6 million homes in that category shifts the numbers even further.

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The wave is coming…