A long time reader reminded me that saying analyst’s numbers for deployed IoT devices were low and then not really walking through the why of my numbers, is well also not good. My apologies for that, I was half asleep in Frog’s Pajama’s yesterday morning. So, let me build out the why of my numbers today to further walk my equation.
First off, IoT (and Cyber Physical Systems, that includes the inclusion of integration components, management components and the overall structure of what and how the devices exist today/tomorrow) represents a broad category. It is important that your initial definition include the depth and breadth of the what things are.
1. IoT represents a device that connects with or through another device to the Internet to create, share or present information.
2. Analysis and evaluation of information is done by a user or by an application and can be on the handheld device or can be compiled and analyzed on a remote set of devices.
Why is that designation and definition important? Well first off IoT is a large data issue. Not the over-hyped big data problems we heard about over the past few years. It is a large data in that lots of data is produced by the Many IoT devices deployed, that has to be managed. IoT devices today actually have a fairly effective filter (more than 50% of all IoT produced data never reaches a human being because it doesn’t need to).
So then we probably should include the concept of categories for IoT devices.
3. Personal information and wearable
a. Tracking of people
b. Tracking of objects
c. Tracking and management/securing space
A Bluetooth headset, not an IoT device. Unless that headset does something natively such as record calls or translate from one language spoken to another language heard. External battery to keep your cellular device alive, not an IoT device. But with our definition above there are many more devices in the world than the analysts see deployed, and ultimately will be deployed.
Smart appliances, solar panels, home generators, computers, cellular phones, tablets and eBook devices are all smart and connected today. Televisions, projectors and projection devices are all connected. In fact, many devices we purchase today are aware of, work with or connect to our home network or our connected devices and utilize pass through for updates and other functions.
My Olympus TG-4 camera and my JVC video camera both connect to my iPad and allow me to upgrade video and pictures to the device. They are a form of IoT device. My car has an IoT device (Automatic) that connects to the many IoT sensors of the car, and the CPU or brain of my car to provide critical information.
So the number of devices deployed in my hosue right now – in excess of 50 all told. That represents 12 to 15 devices per person in my house right now. Let’s build a series of assumptions then based on this total number.
1. Not all homes are as connected as mine. In fact, I suspect the distribution is probably a fairly consistent traditional bell curve.
So the pie chart shows just how huge the early adopter and adopter segments are today. Just having a car that is connected and a cellular device you now have a number of IoT devices. In fact, the number for the US alone and only US consumer/home user is 1.35 billion devices. Extrapolate this to the global perspective and pushing the percentage of not adopting higher (figure 20% of the world’s total population doesn’t even have a cellular device). You still end up with massive numbers. An average of 4.1 devices per person in the US. Assume the distribution today is only consumer and not industrial. That, given the overall decrease in numbers outside the US today, would put the world wide per user number at close to 2.2 devices. Or roughly 15 billion deployed devices now, in the consumer space. Add in government, military and industrial and we are pushing 22 billion devices deployed today. That puts us on a run rate closer to 100 billion devices by 2020.
I have a few assumptions for this data, but it is pretty solid (and I suspect my number is conservative).
Building my IoT numbers case…